S&P 500 - April 2, 2013

Is this the anatomy of an ending diagonal?

I have lost count of number of times in recent days I have read here, there, somewhere, somone calling a top.  I guess the secret for calling tops (and bottoms) is to keep calling it till one of the calls pans out. This, of course, is totally absurd if one wants to play with real money in the real market in real-time

That's why I prefer tightening/raising stops

Anyhow, back to S&P. it, so far, looks like an ending diagonal is in play

If that is the case, then a trend line break followed by a cut below a prior low may be the first clue that this uptrend, that has defied so many top-callers, has ended


On a different note, in prior posts, I had TopFinders tracing short-term trends and signalling ends. I am not using a TopFinder now because the trend since March 19 is, so far choppy and more or less lateral. topFinders (and Bottom Finders) work well with accelerated sharp trends.


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Gold Miners - March 24, 2013

In a previous post, http://markettime.blogspot.ca/2013/03/precious-metals-march-07-2012.html, I did a technical study on HUI and concentrated on two support areas

So far, HUI has found some support from the higher area of 325 and made a bounce


Looking at  a related ETF, Canadian XGD on TSX of Toronto

There seems to be a short-term uptrend and a nice short-term breakout

But it's still in a well-defined down-channel


For me, the recent low is a stop for any starter long position

Breaking out of the down-channel is a must for  me to consider any addition


Of course, without gold firming and doing well, miners may not stand much of a chance

Compared to miners, gold has held very well

It looks just like a correction so far

The red graph on the price chart is weekly momentum cycle of the price. It is trying to turn up but trying means nothing to me -- it is achieving that counts

GLD has to hold support (around 148) or, worst case, stay above the the breakout line (dashed black line on the price chart), and the weekly momentum cycle must really turn up and rise and

PM's have been out of favor for quite some time. I smell a rally at the least. But while I may start a small position for the smell, I need more from price to become a serious player


Investing in the financial markets can involve considerable risk. Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future performance. All information included in Market Time Premium reflects ongoing thoughts of Market Time authors about market-related issues, and is prepared for educational purposes, and is presented as authors’ observations, and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security or use any particular system. Information is based on historical research using data believed to be reliable, but there is no guarantee as to its accuracy. Market Time Premium, its author(s), and its affiliates do not represent themselves as acting in the position of an investment adviser or investment manager. Market Time Premium, its author(s), and its affiliates shall not provide you with personally tailored advice concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio or securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. From time to time, Market Time Premium, its author(s), and its affiliates may hold positions in securities mentioned, but are under no obligation to either divulge or hold such positions.

S&P 500 - March 21, 2013

TopFinder curve (Red dashed curve on the chart below) I was tracking has now expired

The uptrend since Feb 26 is likely over.


The question is if a new uptrend is about to be launched (and a new TopFinder to be tracked) from March 19



Immediate support has moved up to 1530-1536 area. If market has another high or another uptrend in it, then 1530-1538 should hold


I theoretically expect an intermediate low in the April-May time frame.  It is time for me to tighten or set trailing stops for any index long positions


Investing in the financial markets can involve considerable risk. Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future performance. All information included in Market Time Premium reflects ongoing thoughts of Market Time authors about market-related issues, and is prepared for educational purposes, and is presented as authors’ observations, and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security or use any particular system. Information is based on historical research using data believed to be reliable, but there is no guarantee as to its accuracy. Market Time Premium, its author(s), and its affiliates do not represent themselves as acting in the position of an investment adviser or investment manager. Market Time Premium, its author(s), and its affiliates shall not provide you with personally tailored advice concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio or securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. From time to time, Market Time Premium, its author(s), and its affiliates may hold positions in securities mentioned, but are under no obligation to either divulge or hold such positions.

S&P 500 - March 12, 2013

TopFinder (red dashed curve on the chart above) launched from recent low is at 44%


Previous TopFinders went into 80+% percent before an end to the trend they tracked


My methods indicate  a theoretical intermediate low in late April early May time frame


I think market is at a stage that I should think about tightening and/or trailing stops for long S&P position

Investing in the financial markets can involve considerable risk. Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future performance. All information included in Market Time Premium reflects ongoing thoughts of Market Time authors about market-related issues, and is prepared for educational purposes, and is presented as authors’ observations, and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security or use any particular system. Information is based on historical research using data believed to be reliable, but there is no guarantee as to its accuracy. Market Time Premium, its author(s), and its affiliates do not represent themselves as acting in the position of an investment adviser or investment manager. Market Time Premium, its author(s), and its affiliates shall not provide you with personally tailored advice concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio or securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. From time to time, Market Time Premium, its author(s), and its affiliates may hold positions in securities mentioned, but are under no obligation to either divulge or hold such positions.

Precious Metals - March 07, 2012

Gold bugs of all shapes and sizes have been sprayed left and right and center for some time


It was just a  matter of months ago when they thought new all-time highs after highs when latest round of QE was announced

Well, it did not work that way and what took flight was S&P, gold and silver languished and PM miners got hammered

A few posts ago, I said:

"Using the above line study, first area of support is around 325"

And


"Second area of support is around 225"


Those areas still look viable support below a broken trend lien


This is a chart of SLV

 It is in an area of support above 25. This is a must hold.


GLD looks similar to SLV -- in an area of support below a broken trend line

While I may venture a little long with a stop below the area of support, IMHO, it is the break out of GLD and silver above the down-sloping tight channel (red lines) that may start a good rally


I personally think that gold is working on a yearly cycle low but there is no way to say at what level or what time in the year that low will come.

Sentiment is poor towards PMs. Things are oversold. Gold and silver may be very close to a low for, at least, a tradeable rally 



Investing in the financial markets can involve considerable risk. Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future performance. All information included in Market Time Premium reflects ongoing thoughts of Market Time authors about market-related issues, and is prepared for educational purposes, and is presented as authors’ observations, and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security or use any particular system. Information is based on historical research using data believed to be reliable, but there is no guarantee as to its accuracy. Market Time Premium, its author(s), and its affiliates do not represent themselves as acting in the position of an investment adviser or investment manager. Market Time Premium, its author(s), and its affiliates shall not provide you with personally tailored advice concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio or securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. From time to time, Market Time Premium, its author(s), and its affiliates may hold positions in securities mentioned, but are under no obligation to either divulge or hold such positions.