charts courtesy of stockcharts.com
My preferred count is calling for a counter trend rally. But I should not lose sight of alternate scenarios. The sideways 4th wave is one scenario that I have been presenting. There is also this one.
Under this scenario, we have just started a minor wave 5 down.
Let's stay focused on internals, volatility and momentum, and see if we can decipher the intentions of the market.
PS. My Friend Bill Zimmer of prudenttrader.com mentioned that latest sentiment readings of bloggers has had 60% at a bullish stance. I think what it means is that after a few days of a rally from extremely oversold levels of the mother-of-all margin call-driven sell offs, people are afraid of missing the next big bull.
I, personally, am not a die-hard user of sentiment data, and lean more towards the use of waves and other technicals. Sentiment readings are like polls, and I have my reservations about data gathered via direct questions from people. Still, I find that high a number, so soon after a such height of panick, very amusing.
S&P 500 – May 15, 2012 - Bottom Line: Long term trend is up. Mid-term trend is down. Short-term trend is down Weekly S&P stage is Late Advance (2-C) Daily S&P stage is Strong Decli...
1 year ago