Another day, another gap up!
On a weekend post about AEM, I expressed the possibility of AEM being pushed through some resistance levels. I did not expect a 10% push. But I take it, thank you.
AEM is in an uptrend confirmed by OEW criteria. Gold is in an uptrend confirmed by OEW criteria. AEM has been leading gold. This is the big picture to me at the moment.
Let's look at the daily chart
AEM is finally registering some overbought readings on the daily chart, and daily MACD has climbed above zero. So, technically it’s been laying the grounds to go higher.
Short term, it is really overbought, and there may be a pullback. I really did not want to give away the morning run up in price. I also posted during the day (I seldom do such things), and that proved to be the top of the day. Hey, even I get lucky sometimes. I assure you I have no crystal ball, no insider or market specialist gives me tips, and I definitely am no guru – just luck.
As things stand now, I will be very careful on the short side, and cautiously eager on the long side. But, first, I need a pullback to see how the sellers sell, and how the buyers buy.
Near term waves can be counted so many different ways because of all the 5-wave advances in the pattern – we’ve had three. I have stacked some alternatives. My hunches tell me what we have from the lows of October 27 is corrective. But I shall be open to positive developments if they occur. The goal is to make money, not to prove a point
I decided to take a look at GG and GDX for a possible calcification in the short-term wave count
This is 60-minute Goldcorp
and this is GDX
If it seems like the waves are confusing, well, I think they are. Waves are just a tool. If one tool is not helping me solve a problem, I use other tools.So, I will stay with the bigger picture, and trade using short term trend lines, directional waves and oscillators.
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2 comments:
Could not have said it better myself. This putative corrective rally seems to have some very solid momentum, and I agree: I am not going to jump the gun and favour a particular count. With the MACD crossing the centerline, it really looks like it still has some upside on the daily charts. I tend not to look at triangle/wedge formations on the indicators too much, though the Williams %R (and its close relative stochastics) appears to be forming one of those two shapes. It is too early to tell. Thanks for showing the trend channels on that daily chart. I am guilty of losing the big picture! I really would like to see the technical action when AEM approaches 50 dollars (close to the 6108 RL). IMHO, I think that might be a point at which we could clarify where this might be going. The problem I find is that Major A wave completing in October was not a clean 5 wave down. I am tentatively ruling out that this Major ABC correction is a zigzag. I will have to wait and see however, and resist the temptation of overanalyzing and looking for wedges that might not be there.
Take Care,
J.K.
J.K.
Thanks for the comments
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