Let’s continue with yesterday’s post and borrow from Macbeth again
To-morrow, and to-morrow, and to-morrow,
Creeps in this petty pace from day to day,
To the last syllable of bull & bear life;
The Yo-Yo continues. I don’t really know how investors carry positions through these churns. One must really believe in one’s outlook to sit on a big positions. Maybe that's why markets are so wild, nobody is sitting on anything for long - they are all on acid.
Breadth was broadly positive. Financials bounced. Good volume. An all around positive day. Only that we had more new lows than highs on NYSE
The day started with a gap, the gap was filled, the low was tested, and, gradually, the index rose. The rise was rather gradual, which might indicate that the index was working on absorbing what sellers had to offer. Then there was the last dash, some shorts throwing the towels, maybe.
Nasdaq 100 has been outperforming S&P, and it has not yet confirmed a mid-term downtrend. We have a fractured market, some sectors in a downtrend, some not, some indexes in a downtrend, some not. This is very indicative of the battle between the bulls and bears. It is still a bear market on longer time frames, and a schizophrenic market on shorter frames.
We are following a number of counts as we’ve discussed. Two counts, however, are very active on my desk. You can refer to yesterday’s post for weekly views
Today's action has opened up a number of short term wave configurations
We are following a number of counts as we’ve discussed. Two counts, however, are very active on my desk. You can refer to yesterday’s post for weekly viewsToday's action has opened up a number of short term wave configurations
This is one possibility
If correct, price should not rise above 85o, which, as we remember is a widely watched pivot area.
If correct, price should not rise above 85o, which, as we remember is a widely watched pivot area. What if the price rises above 850?
One other possibility is that we have just finished major B, and major C is on the way to establish primary B at higher prices
Another possibility is an irregular wave 2 / B
If so, then price should not rise for long, and if it gets too far past 850 area, I would get suspicious of this count.
One other possibility is that we have just finished major B, and major C is on the way to establish primary B at higher prices
Another possibility is an irregular wave 2 / B
If so, then price should not rise for long, and if it gets too far past 850 area, I would get suspicious of this count.I think that is enough for now.
All options are open for bulls and bears. 850 is, again, of technical importance. If the index makes a new low, probabilities will gravitate to the bearish counts once more.
It is important to watch Nasdaq and other sectors to detect early signs of weakness, or strength.
It is important to watch Nasdaq and other sectors to detect early signs of weakness, or strength.
It's a tough market. Day trading, however, is not all that bad
It's not rocket science, all it it takes is focus and discipline, and an aptitude for taking calculated risks
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3 comments:
Hi Piazzi
Yesterday you have say us that moving average more important than oscillator, today oscillator is in your analysis. Have you changed your opinion?
Thank you very much for Blog.
J
J.
I said: In Trending Market, moving averages take over.
there is a big difference between trending and not trending.
also, a market may be trending in one time frame and not in the other.
also, in this post, where did I say anything about oscillators. They are always part of my chart settings.
I have never said that they are irrelevant, all I have said, is that depending on the trend on the time frame of one's choice, moving averages may become more important.
In a weekly time frame, a trend may last for a long time before it goes sideways, also, weekly sideways may be very wide, in lesser time frames, the transition from trending, to sideways happens faster.
if you look at the the last chart where I am describing a possible day trade, I am using price points and moving averages, I never mention oscillators in there. Still, I have them as my settings to check things as price moves
when one suspects an end to a certain trend (again, remember, it may be a trend of 20 minutes, it may be 20 weeks), one may check with oscillators for clues, and confirmation
as an exercise, I would like you to take a look at the chart of UNG (Nat Gas ETF), first take up daily, see how oversold it is, and for how long, the trend is suffocating the momentum, now look at a 30 minute chart, see there have been many bounces that a fast trader might have traded, but without regards for the larger trend, a complacent trader would have been killed on the long side.
now look at the 30-minute chart with eyes of a bear, adjust your moving averages so that you can capture the broader move, every bounce becomes shortable now, one may just wait for it to become overbought, and short it -- as long as one's MAs are leading the price down
This is not to say that we should short Nat gas here, just an example from a very strong downtrend
if you are interested in doing the same exercise for an uptrend, look at UNG in the period before its peak in 2008
hope this helped, if not let me know, and I'll try to explain more
Thank-you of answering well I understand now.
Jean
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