This a 60-minute chart of ES June.
I have identified some levels of importance that, if index is really going to go down, could be in play.
I have also identified the base of the tentative diagonal as a theoretical target. if we combine that with our pivots, we get an area of 768-789
I cannot emphasize this enough: These are THEORETICAL targets based on a TENTATIVE diagonal.
This is 5-minute frame
Price has dropped in a clean 1-to-5 wave set to the upper side of the neckline that I had highlighted for a play a few days ago. I have also drawn a channel.
The area in between the lower boundary of the channel and the neckline may be a good spot for the index to attempt a bounce.
That bounce, or any bounce, IF it comes, will tell you and me the story.
There has been noise about the result of stress test on banks and such. Whatever, whomever, however: watch the BKX index, and Gold, a drop in the former and a bounce in the latter can further solidify the diagonal case.
If, I emphasize IF, we get further confirmation of the diagonal, watch Nas100 to see if it leads on the way down or not. If it does, pullback will have a better chance of reaching the theoretical target. If it does not, it may indicate that risk appetite is not willing to leave the scen completely
If I wanted to start a new short, I would wait for a bounce from here, or I would take a pivot, or a red level identified on the 60-minute chart and play around that.
If Index makes a new high, it may put a lot of pressure on a lot of shorts, I would not want to be caught in a squeeze like that.
Have a nice day!