Messy day!
Index started with a pre-market gap down, chopped its way up, filled the gap, and eased back into a negative close.
Volume was below average. Breadth was negative.
It felt more like a consolidation day than a distribution day. We need volume to make definitive calls. Bears need to keep the action below 850.
My 60-minute road map is still doing well
The battle around the 850 level continued today. Notice that it is now more than a week that index is in the lower half of the channel, and all it has done after breaking the diagonal has been hitting the underside of the broken trend line (In Blue)
This is the 60-minute chart of the June contract
The entire rise from April 21 is corrective. we don't know if it's done (an abc) or still has more thrusts in it (as can happen with abc-x's). I still think that we will get a 5-wave minor C down, but the resiliency of the corrective rise since April 21 may cause a choppy sideway correction.
If we get a 5-wave down move, a theoretical target of C=A places aims for 820 area – just some possibilities to keep in mind as we observe the index in coming days.
Nothing has happened to force me to change my wave count.
And the June contract
There is a potential H&S on the chart. I emphasize that it is a potential pattern. If it succeeds, it measures to 830.
Not much else to say. Wednesday is Fed Show day, just be on the lookout for excessive volatility leading to their blah-blah, and the reaction after.
I meant to post this trading chart as part of the weekend post but forgot to do so. I think it is self-explanatory
Short term trend is up. Mid-term trend is up. Long term trend is down
Support is the 850 area. It is very important for the bears to keep the index below 850. Resistance at 877 (April high) and then 912 pivot.
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