TSX - April 5, 2009

charts courtesy of stockcharts.com

On March 25, I said this

the short-term series of higher lows and higher highs is intact, but as long as the signs of short term weakness persist, I would be reluctant to establish a new long position.

and

I need to see how it pulls back. As long as it does not collapse, and as long as index internals do not deteriorate badly, I will treat a pullback as an opportunity to establish new long positions.

Index did pullback about 1/3 of the advance


And breadth did not deteriorate at all

But I am a bit cautious here, because the pullback was shallow and left quite a distance to the March low; also, it was not enough to work off the daily overbought readings. So, I thought taking some of the quick profits on Friday would be a prudent move. I have not decided yet whether to raise the initial stop I had in mind to the neighbourhood of the low of late March, or to let it just run.

TSX has confirmed a mid-term uptrend. I still think that a pullback can be purchased, but I rather wait for the daily picture to cool off a bit. One recent positive development has been the rally in the financial sector. On the other hand, gold stocks look vulnerable and any correction there would negatively impact the materials sector that has been front running the index.

It's too soon to say, and I just take it one level at a time for the time being.

Short term trend is up. Mid-term trend is up. Long term trend is down.