S&P 500 - December 16, 2009 - BMO

Not much has changed. Market tested the to of the range and sold off.

Volume expanded, and yesterday could be counted as a distribution day by technical measures.

It seems like both buyers and sellers are waiting for something to happen. In other words, seems like bulls, while not selling en mass, are not buying enough to cause the breakout. On the other hand, bears seem content to hit and run.

so while I am waiting, I can play with fictional scenarios, like this

If I could control the short term of the market and I did not want to commit extra capital to drive the market up, while still wanting the market to go up and help my existing longs, I would use this AM's econo-news to drive the futures down, hoping to lure the sellers in, especially since yesterday market sold into the close, and then I would try to squeeze them higher, especially since this is an OpEx week with a Fed show to boot.

Fictitious, fantasy scenarios aside, we are a the top of a range in a market that has been trading technically , and I should either entertain a short with a stop above the range, or stand aside.

For longer term positions, I should either hedge, or do nothing.