S&P 500 - June 2, 2010 - BMO

S&P was limp and tired around 1090 all day and dropped to support 1070 into close. That is action one sees on a market that distributes a steady tape and then stands aside and let it drop.

Intraday breadth was the thing that alerted us something was not quite right yesterday.

Now, index is at another level of support, 1070.





this 60-min chart shows how the market price suddenly went sour into the close



closes like above are not typically bull-friendly. It is still possible to count the intraday bullishly. But it is possible to count it in bearish ways as well. So, pay more attention to what price does than to what some waver posts on some site.

1090 is a clear resistance area.

1070 is the next support.

OEW pivot support is at 1058 and 1041.

It more and more seems like market is suffering a lack of confidence. If so, every bad news like Tension around Gaza, downgrade of Spain, inability of Germans to make up their mind about printing or not printing, etc, becomes a burden.

When that happens, it becomes the job of the bulls to prove their worth. 1090 is a first stop from here.

We started blogging TED again on May 6. It still is not very bull-friendly. It's has gone steadily up.


In a way, like VIX, many pay too much attention to the the value of TED. TED's value is important of course, and VIX's value is important. But the value of these type of indicators in important withing their operational context like cost of risk or borrowing for TED and cost of options for VIX. To gauge the health of the broader market in short and intermediate term, the direction and behavior of TED (and VIX) is more important than the value. Remember That!

Trade Safely!