I went across a number of sites from mildly bearish to all-out perma bearish and no mention of Hindenburg.
Can something as ominous as a blowup cease to be ruminated just because of a so-far-successful retest of a retest of a test of 1040. Is it just human nature to imagine the worst at the depths and desire the best at the heights?
There is no clear answer I guess.
Can someone tell me what conditions do nullify the Hindenburg thing? I can find plenty of words talking conditions of first sign and second sign and …. But I can’t find anything saying when the air becomes clear from the Hindenburg’s Cockpit view.
Oh, well!
As I was looking around for any new mention of the omen, I came across a very interesting post by at ZeroHedge
You can read it here
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/aggressive-push-ramp-stocks-higher-audjpy-provides-convergence-arb
They made the post at 10:11 am and what a great call they had on 10-15 ES point rise from then
Interesting that stuff like that coincide with oversold conditions and day after day of bad econo-stuff, and a couple of mention of Hindenburg omen and 1st confirmation and 2nd confirmation and so on
Great post and inter-market insight from the folks at ZeroHedge .
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This is a weekly chart
Notice how the weekly candle is sitting on the purple line. Also notice that for three weeks now, the purple line has been a resting place for the index. Not a bad actionary line, is it?
I have said that I view index’s posture as neutral on the weekly frame as long as it stays between purple line and the blue line. So, neutral still, a negative tilt, perilously close to breakdown, but neutral still.
Bulls would want to get the index above the MAs (above 1095), and that would be a good first step for them.
This is a daily
It took 4 hits (tests) of the 1041 pivot range to finally get the index a decent bounce and some pressure on the shorts. Notice how MACD stopped on its uptrend.
Yesterday, I said:
“If the low holds, that would, IMO, give a rather solid floor for tradable position on the long side, as cut-off risk becomes very well defined and easily hedgable on any advance -- something for me to ponder”
And that’s what we seemed to have today – a nice trade (if one wanted to hit and run), or a probable position (if one wanted to hang in and see what Monday brings).
There seems to be a lot of technical resistance starting in the 1070 area and going all the way to 1100. For now, the widely watched 1040 held. Next thing to do for the bulls is to squeeze enough juice out of shorts to get the index above 1070.
As I mentioned during the week, as long as the low holds, there is a good chance for the index to get into 1070-1090 range. If bulls can do that, then we’ll see how much the technicals improve.
Daily volume expanded and came about average. Daily breadth was excellent
McClellan Group of oscillators turned up
We’ll keep an eye on McClellan’s to see how they behave if the bounce continues.
This is a 60-min chart
During the past few days I kept posting levels that might suggest a change in short term trend. The last was when I said
“Index needs a move above 1060 to perhaps suggest a change in short term trend.”
So, now we have that and we’ll see what bulls can do with it.
Index is inside a gap and bulls need to exceed it and then hold it, ideally around the top of it, on any possible setback in the coming hours.
There is room for a bit more squeezing before index reaches the lower part of what looks like strong technical resistance around 1070.
On a separate note, all bears had to do was break 1040, and they could not, not this time, anyways
OEW pivot support is at 1058 and 1041. Pivot resistance at 1090 and 1107.
And what did Bernanke say today? My take of the whole drab, insipid spiel of the chief money printer of the land is that he is hell-bent on doing anything he can for prices not to fall – but we already knew this, did we not?
Here’s what I read
“First, the FOMC will strongly resist deviations from price stability in the downward direction.”
There, that’s all I care to know and point out from his blah-blah today.
Some think he’ll fail. Some think he’ll succeed. I really don’t care what others think. He may fail in one time frame and succeed in another. I just want to know what Bernanke wants to do. Market will decide on his success or failure in one time frame or another, and, hopefully, I’ll follow the market and end up OK through this mess.
Long term trend is up. Mid-term trend is up. Short term trend may have turned up.
Have a Nice Weekend!
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