Index gained for a 4th day and finished the week on a positive note.
This was a week of mainly good breadth. It also was a week of diminishing momentum and contracting volume.
This is a weekly chart
As far as price is concerned, this was not bad for a week that was supposed to, according to some, see money managers sell en masse upon return from vacation.
As far as volume and momentum go, money managers may very well be on vacation still :-)
Weekly chart is neutral. It has support of it MAs. We have a slight cross on MACD. Index seems to need a good push to get some momentum on the upside otherwise it can just go sideways.
I would not like a move below the moving averages.
This is a daily
Index did not spend much time inside the red consolidation zone. I would have liked the move to be accompanied by better momentum and volume.
Index is approaching the widely watched, and universally discussed, 200 MA. Since June’s low, index has poked through 200 MA twice, only to back down and fall. It would be interesting to see if index manages to go through that MA this time, and if whether it can stay above it or not. That may attract attention and participation. Maybe that’s what people are waiting for. I mean, if I am in position from much lower like 1050-1060 or so, why not wait and see if somebody bids this thing past something as ballyhooed as 200 MA, and if someone does that, maybe I wait and see if they can take it past the August peak. Meanwhile, I can raise my stops, trade a little, add a little, whatever, but mainly manage an already profitable position till I get a better read of market’s intentions.
Anyways, back to TA, I would like the bulls to not fall in the red zone. It’s OK if they pullback or go sideways, I just want them to stay out of the red zone. That means that I would like them to stay above 1085-1090.
Daily volume shrank. Daily breadth was good
Despite positive breadth on a daily basis, some broader measures are still stuck in the middle
A/D line made a new high, and that is good.
McClellan group of oscillators have risen nicely during this advance
The faster oscillators look like they may be peaking. That’s alright and inevitable at some point, but it is important that the slower Summation Index does not collapse.
This is a 60-min chart
At first glance, the 60-min frame looks dangerously weak – seriously diverging momentum and a price structure that is looking like a cagey diagonal in the making over the past couple of days.
That’s what we see. Yet, if we step back and look at weekly and daily frames, we see an index where price structure looks somewhat neutral to positive. So, I am hesitant to go gong-ho short in anticipation ahead of a turn. If bears are going to take over, they should break below 1100 and keep the bulls from getting above 1125. In-between 1100 and 1120, there is an area of battle, a.k.a chop shop, between bulls and bears
My levels are at 1100, 1095, 1085-1090
OEW pivot support is at 1107 and 1090. Pivot resistance at 1136, 1146.
Long term trend is up. Mid-term trend is up. short term trend is up.
Enjoy the Rest of Your Weekend!
S&P 500 – May 15, 2012 - Bottom Line: Long term trend is up. Mid-term trend is down. Short-term trend is down Weekly S&P stage is Late Advance (2-C) Daily S&P stage is Strong Decli...
1 year ago