Tuesday, November 30, 2010

S&P 500 - November 30, 2010 - Intraday 2

If I had an S&P position opened today at the lower edge of the 1175-1225 band, I would think about buying put(s) with 1160-1170 in mind to secure it and define my risk going forward.

This I would do for a new position because I am operating on two scenarios:

1. We have the Intermediate wave 4 in, or will have it in soon, and we will embark on intermediate wave 5, and there is no guarantee that a wave 5 would extend far beyond the last high

or

2. The bullish count is wrong and we have more decline to come (from here or after a bounce) and the last thing I would want is to be a happy-come-lately chump to be taken to cleaners because I tried to be cute and buy support


For positions from lower levels, I look at 1168-1175 as a good area of support/stop/concern to me.

Have a Nice Day!

S&P 500 - November 30, 2010 - Intraday

If the lower edge of the 1175-1225 band holds, it will give a very actionable price point going forward. It also helps those of us with positions from lower levels to raise our stop/concern level(s)

S&P 500 - November 29, 2010

The afternoon price sure of the double POMO day did manage to hold support and rally but it was not enough to expand the breadth.


McClellan is still

S&P had a bounce off it 55 EMA.


Notice the broken blue channel line. Notice price hanging to the underside of the green mid-channel line. Also notice how index first used its 34 EMA for bounces and now the 55 EMA while 13 and 34 are threatening to roll over from a flattened situation.

Bulls need to get above the short term MAs – SOON!

Intraday , I posted a 60-min chart with a downward channel added.

I have put it on the daily here


Seems like to get out of this mess, bulls need to get above 1200 – SOON!

This is a 60-min chart


1174 area has been tested 3 times so far. Bulls should start putting some distance on the upside, and get above 1200 as soon as possible. That would be a small step in the right direction.

A move above 1192 may indicate a potential to set a positive posture.

As long as index stays below 1190, it’s either consolidating or declining.

Here are theoretical range targets based on what I have marked with black lines on the 60-mon chart

Downside:
1st target 1150
2nd target 1125

Upside
1st target 1225
2nd target 1250

We all have known that the play has been short-the-dollar-buy-the-whatever

So, it must be of no surprise why market feels heavy and stuck in doo-doo


OEW pivot support at 1187 and 1176. Pivot resistance at 1227 and 1240

Long term trend is up. Mid-term trend is up. Short term trend is chop-chop-to-down (note that we had a lower low intraday yesterday)

Have a Nice Day!

Monday, November 29, 2010

S&P 500 - November 29, 2010 - Intraday 2

Market had a late afternoon surge.

So, once again, 1175 area of support held and led to the afternoon bounce of this double POMO day.

On the 60-min chart, index is still in the range defined by the black lines. I have a bunch of channels on the chart.


Bulls should, as starter get out of the blue channel and approach the top of the black range.

On the daily, index has been kept under 13 EMA and that is an immediate resistance to take or the chart may further roll over.


NDX also had a bounce from the support of 34 EMA and the mid line of the blue channel.


All-in-all, not bad for the bulls so far, but they need to start a short term uptrend. They need to do much more than just bounce off support -- higher lows, higher highs, that's what it takes for a trend.

So, 1175 area remain support -- tested three times so far.

Remember the bigger range is defined by 1175-1200-1225, and if one wants to slice using half ranges: 1175-1187-1200-1212-1225

Have a Nice Afternoon!

S&P 500 - November 29, 2010 - Intraday

So far, we are having a lower low and index has dipped below 1175.

S&P needs a move above 1194 to perhaps indicate a potential foe positive posture.

As long as index stays below 1185-1190, it is either declining or going sideways.

Remember the range targets I mentioned last post, they may come in play if index cannot get its act together soon.


Today we have a double POMO -- does anybody care? Is anybody still dancing the POMO dance?

You know what stock is up? IRE

Is that where POMO money goes?


Who cares and who knows? Pay attention to price levels and posture!

Have a Nice day!

Sunday, November 28, 2010

S&P 500 - November 26, 2010

Are you gapped enough yet?

Chop-chop market was what we had for the week.

During the shortened Friday session, I said that S&P needed a move above 1195 to indicate potential for a positive posture and that as long as index stays below 1192, it had potential for more decline.

Well S&P stayed below 1192 and dropped a bit more. After the market closed, the futures took a high volume hit of some more points down


There was a last minute high-volume sell on SPY in the regular market as well


This is a very curious dump at the end of a rather slow week.

Whether there is something some people know or it was just a matter of trying to lighten risk/or establish a hedge lest the North Korean idiot gets himself into a real war, or something goes bad in Europe, or some banks fail in US, or the Chinese raise rates or margin requirements or whatever, we’ll only know on Monday – maybe Sunday evening session in the futures market.

As a side note, and FWIW, Monday is a double POMO day

2-4-1 POMO!

——————————————————————

This is a monthly


If you remember, after the top of summer 2009, I said that the rise from March 2009 low was a 4-way affair, and as such, it could be a wave 1, a wave A, or part of a larger upward correction. I argued that, if I were correct with my count, we would have another attempt at a high for at least a 7th wave. We are having that 7th wave. The move the low of summer 2009 is one wave the way we measure significant waves using OEW.

There is strong technical resistance from 1200 to 1250 and I suspect that this wave, if it has not topped already, will top somewhere in that 50-point range. The next significant wave down after this one is over will tell us if the preferred bullish count is correct or not.

This is a weekly



This was the 4th consecutive week that index close above 200 MA. It is still within the blue channel that I have had on the chart for weeks. These past two weeks, index has bounced from its 13 MA area. It basically has been going nowhere while RSI has been falling from oversold levels. It so far looks like consolidation. To an optimist, it may be a consolidation before the resumption of the run up. To a pessimist, it may be a pause before another leg down. I think, as long as index stays within 1175-1200-1225, it is either consolidating or advancing. That means that we can carry the current count that is looking for an end to an intermediate wave 4 leading to an intermediate wave 5 up.

For an existing position from lower levels (we started thinking about a tradable bottom around 1050), one only needs to do position management for size and for risk.

For a new long position, one needs to determine if the risk justifies the expected reward. If the answer is yes, then somewhere around support of 1175 may be the place to put a bet. If the answer is no, then one either stands aside or start looking for a place to perhaps short.

Further downside increases the risk of an OEW trend reversal. I cannot divulge the criteria for that but I will let you know when it happens.

This is a daily


It’s been walking a tight range near support – a rater precarious situation. The drop to the low of Nov 16 took RSI into oversold areas. But the attempts at a run after that were capped by RSI around the neutral area.

Notice the area between 13 and 34 MA. This is a contraction. If all that mattered in the world were technicals, I would say that the chances are for the contraction to act as a continuation pattern and expand downward. But technicals are not all that matter in the world. On November 18, I said that we had enough waves for an intermediate wave 4. Prior to that, on November 16, Intraday, the day market was plunging into its low (so far), I had said that if I had wanted to bet on the bulls’ side, I might have looked into some Dec or January calls with strike 120+. On November 18, Intraday, index was playing with 1200 area and I said that if I had those calls, I would look into either taking partial profit, or some sort of a spread, or both.

There are many ways of playing the short term of the market, and what I did Nov 16-18 is just one way. We assess the technicals, see if we are near an area of support/resistance, decide on some exit strategy, and, if feeling like it take a shot.

Short term adventures aside, not much has changed since November 16 to make me confident of the technical picture one way or the other.

We still have the possibility of Nov 16 low being the low of Intermediate 4. The chop-chop that has happened after it has cast a bit of doubt on that possibility, but the chop has evolved in a wave structure that would definitely rule one short term alternate or another.

This is a 60-min chart



The short term wave possibilities are plentiful. I have two of them on the chart, but there are so many of them possible. I shall keep that in mind next time a perma-waver attempts to push his/her count as if it were THE ONLY wave possibility.

We seem to have a short term range. A break of this range has theoretical targets of
Downside:
1st target 1150
2nd target 1125

Upside
1st target 1225
2nd target 1250

Notice that the upside targets coincide with levels of resistance that we see on weekly and monthly charts.

If I were a bull, I would want for the market to drop down from this range to a level that would not force a trend change, but get the sentiment, breadth and momentum down enough to set the foundation for a run up. It can happen, especially with all the bad news of recent days that may give us a push down) and market entering a seasonally favorable period as we enter December. The key is for the mid-term trend to hold on and not reverse.

As things stand now, S&P needs a move above 1195 to indicate a potential for a positive short term posture. A move above 1200 would further strengthen that possibility.

As longs as index stays above 1175 area, it may be chopping the range away.

If index cannot hold 1175 area, 1168, 1145 and 1136 are next OEW pivots we have. 1135-1150 is an area that I expect the bulls to seriously start defending the uptrend if the going gets rough into next week

OEW pivot support at 1187 and 1176. Pivot resistance at 1227 and 1240

Long term trend is up. Mid-term trend is up. Short term trend may have turned down (but note that if yesterday’s low holds, we will get a higher low)

Enjoy the Rest of Your Weekend!

Friday, November 26, 2010

S&P 500 - November 26, 2010

Nothing to get excited about either way.

We had a gap (again) at the open that was not filled (again).

I doubt if we had enough action to change the breadth gauges that I follow, I will check and if I find anything worthwhile, I 'll post.

Have a Nice Weekend!

NDX - November 26, 2010 - Intraday 3

Meanwhile, NDX has done another test of its 13 EMA


As long as the tech index does fine, and S&P stays in range, it all can be seen as a much needed consolidation

S&P 500 - November 26, 2010 - Intraday 2

As we have discussed, daily is contracting between 13 and 34 EMA.


A break of this range may tell us about the next short term trending move

Keep in mind that sometimes first break out of a contraction may be a fake move followed by a reversak in the opposite direction.

But the range itself , and the 1175-1200-1225 band that is in play should give enough for trades with tight stops. Existing position can use these levels as a way to assess risk and take appropriate risk-mitigation measures

S&P 500 - November 26, 2010 - Intraday

As things stand now, S&P need a move above 1195 to indicate potential for a positive posture

as long as index stays below 1192, it has potential for more decline.

Please keep in mind that in a chop-chop market, short term, close levels may easily be chopped to pieces.

Larger frame, it's the 1175-1200-1225 band that has been in play for some time.

S&P 500 - November 26, 2010 BMO

Future markets look bleak at this point. It's still an hour to the open, but were it to open like this, we would get another gap, this time down, in the recent series of the Yo-Yo gaps.

If you remember from last post, I had this 60-min chart



I have a red channel there and some red arrows pointing to a zone I want bulls to overcome.

If market continues its Yo-Yo, it is possible that it goes through a sideways (or upwardly slanted) formation withing the boundaries of the red lines and then breaks lower.

No prediction -- just giving a heads up on what might constant oscillation in a sideways range or channel lead to.

Larger frame, 1175-1200-1225 is the band that has so far contained the price.

Keep an eye on USD as it looks firm in in the future markets at this point -- particularly against Euro

Have a Nice Day!

Thursday, November 25, 2010

S&P 500 - November 24, 2010

Oversold bounce off support.

We said short term breadth was oversold for the bulls to at the very least attempt a bounce if they still were in the game.

So we have a bounce.

This is a weekly


The move today got the index to resistance of 1200 area and just above the 200 MA.

In two days, Index has done a sharp test of support around 1175 and a turn to immediate resistance half way up the 1175-1225 band.

This is a daily


We can clearly see that index managed to hold support yesterday. Some short term MAs are contracting into a narrow sideways formation. Notice that they coincide with 1175-1200. Which is the lower half of the 1175-1225 band. Bulls need to take 1200 and keep pullbacks above 1175. Bears need to break below 1175 and keep bounces below 1200. It’s as simple as that for now.

Daily volume was well below average (It is Turkey Week USA). Daily breadth was awesome.


Notice the new peak on the net new high gauge. On November 16, I said:

“Notice the net number of net new highs that has crept below zero. Last two occasions this happened, we had bottoms. Last 4 occasions it happened, we had bounces.”

So far so good

The volume was absent today, but volume has not been a major driver of any S&P run since March 2009. Breadth has led the index time and time again, so, if breadth does well, I take notice.

Breadth was excellent, so it’s no surprise that McClellan rose back up


Bulls need to do more than just running to resistance on a day before Turkey Holiday USA. They need to break above 1200 as we mentioned. They also need to bid persistently and turn the gauges of this chart back up


NDX has been a clear leader in this mid-term uptrend.


NDX had a very good day. It outperformed S&P and cleared the resistance of its short term moving averages. Notice how the mid line of the blue channel and the 34 EMA offered support in the recent down days.

It’s important for NDX to stay above the recently tested support.

NDX’s McClellan rose also


Notice that NDX’s Summation has not did not dip negative during the recent weakness, positively diverging from S&P’s Summation. That is a sign of internal strength.

Notice that on both indexes McClellan volume is lagging McClellan price. It’s OK, volume has not been a leading factor. But for it to stay OK, price breadth should keep expanding and volume breadth should catch up if we are going to have a resumption of the uptrend.

I don’t think there is any doubt that USD is a main piece, maybe the centre piece, of the market performance.


USD has a sharp bounce from support and is now testing resistance. Keep an eye on how it behaves around here, between 78 and 81

This is a 60-min chart


Market has been gapping up and down a narrow range these past few days. Still the pre-market activity that causes these gaps has not been strong enough to break the market one way or the other.

It’s very hard to count or play or predict the minutiae of intraday moves of a choppy market. But stepping back and looking at weekly and daily charts, we see it’s all part of an ongoing grind in the 1175-1200-1225 range. I have laid down a red channel and marked an area with read arrows. That is an area that I think bulls should overcome and hold.

It’s important for both S&P and NDX to expand McClellan and McClellan volume

OEW pivot support at 1187 and 1176. Pivot resistance at 1222 and 1240.

Long term trend is up. Mid-term trend is up. Short term trend is chop-chop (we have a higher low and that's about it for now).

Have a Nice Day!

Wednesday, November 24, 2010

S&P 500 - November 24, 2010 - Intraday 2

So far, S&P has filled yesterday's gap and reached the neighborhood of 1200.

It has to exceed this with umph to perhaps put some pressure on shorts.

If I had a trading position from yesterday's low and wanted to do some profit taking/heding/insuring, I would do it around here.

Have a Nice Day!

S&P 500 - November 24, 2010 - Intraday

We expected a bounce off short term breadth oversold and we are having one.

Now, we have a potential for a higher low, so, as long as yesterday's low holds, index may be on its path for a resumption of the uptrend.

You will hear countless references to this being the beginning of seasonally strong markets.

That is statistically true. But You remember that you heard how money managers were supposed to come back from summer siesta and sell everything (did not happen), how September would be a down month (did not happen), how October would be a down month (did not happen), how QE2 would take us to the moon (has not happened yet)

so, leave that sort of crapoola for the uninitiated and focus on price behavior, important levels, position and money management.

All levels and MAs we have been discussing are still valid

S&P 500 - November 23, 2010

Did the Ireland comedy of absurd make the leader of North Korea suffer an acute case of attention-starvation syndrome?

Dictators are a very annoying bunch. Ignored dictators can be a very dangerous bunch. Imagine some self-assumed, self-consumed, self-important jackass of a character about whom no one gives a damn for some time. Now imagine this jackass is in charge of one of the most backward countries of the world inhabited by one of the most isolated people of the world. Do you think that just his own people singing his praises would be enough for him?

This is the same jackass who imprisoned two American women to use them to drag Bill Clinton all the way to sit with him for a photo op (which poor Bill graciously did to save the women)

Well with Irish politicians making a comedy of yes-means no-and-no-means-yes, what better way to plead for attention than firing shots at your neighbor?

As the Rabbi of the Fiddler on the Roof might say

A blessing for Kim-the-Little? Of course! May God bless and keep him … far away from us!

Some other planet, maybe?

I can only wish

– but there's no blemish on the wish of a young man ;-)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

This is a weekly chart of S&P


The week is not over yet. It’s a shortened week for the American markets but not over yet. As thing stand now, index is dipping below the support of 200 MA and my blue actionary line.

Despite the Korean bang-bang and some other negative news from China, index is holding the lower area of the 1175-1225 band.

Below the band there is 13 EMA which coincides with 1168 pivot at the moment,

This is a daily


Here’s where things are looking a bit ugly. Index closed below 34 EMA and also below the lower line of my blue channel. Price is still at support of the lower end of the 1175-1225 band.

As you can clearly see, 1200 area and the 13 EMA are immediate technical resistance.

Daily volume expanded a little but came below average. Daily breadth was horrendous


This is the third day of heavy selling in a 9-day period. Despite heavy selling, index managed to stay above the 1175 area.

McClellan Oscillator turned down from neutral-to-negative levels. Summation threatens to dip into negative


ARMS registered another high number


Short term breadth getting oversold and price holding support provide a favorable situation for bulls to get busy on the bid side of an uptrend.

So, if the mid-term uptrend is still healthy, and if the bulls are still in the game, we should at least see an attempt at a bounce from support.

That said, some shorter term breadth measures looked like they have rolled over. Some longer term breadth measures look weak and in need of urgent care


Notice the declining rate of change of the A/D line. Bulls need to get busy – and soon!

This is a 60-min chart


Index gapped down at the start and failed to even get back in the gap. That is not a very encouraging thing. It is important for the bulls to protect the support of the 1175 area and at least try to fill yesterday’s gap

I said that a loss of 1187 might indicate a potential change in trend and the possibility of more downside. I also said that as long as index stayed below 1191, there would be a good case for Intermediate wave 4 being in the books, both those arguments are still valid, but the picture is reversed and index seems to be on the defensive. So, recapturing 1187 pivot is a first small step for the bulls. After that, a creep above 1191 is required from them.

If support fails and we get a new low, things may get ugly quickly.

As we all know, so much rides on US Dollar


Bucky seems to have gotten out of its downtrend – followed by a test of short term support

This is not a very risk-friendly picture, not for the short term at least. Keep an eye on it to see how it behaves when/if it gets to longer term MAs

So, Irish comedy, Korean bang-bang, rising Bucky, news of Chinese tightening …. There is no shortage of stuff to pressure the market. Let’s see if bulls can defend the low of November 16 or not.

OEW pivot support at 1176 and 1168. Pivot resistance at 1187 and 1222

Long term trend is up. Mid-term trend is up. Short term trend may have turned down (but note that if yesterday’s low holds, we will get a higher low)

Have a Nice Day!

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

S&P 500 - November 23, 2010 - BMO

News this morning is of Korea and Korea exchanging fire.

Futures are down and if it holds this way, we will have a gap down.

This sort of news can be very dollar friendly


S&P has been inside the 1175-1225 band, a break of this may make a sharp move down.



A loss of 1175 area can target our 1168 and 1146 pivots.

A loss of 1146 will increase the possiblity of a mid-term trend change.

To the upside, index must clear the 1200/13 EMA area that has been resistance this past few days. Shorter term, index needs to be above 1195 to maintain a positive posture

S&P 500, NDX - November 22, 2010

Seems like market is working a tight range


Lower edge of the blue channel(s) provided support.

It’s a few days that index is oscillating between 1175 and 1200, which is the area of lower half of my 1175-1225 band and coincides with area between 13 and 34 EMA.

Index spent a good portion of the day dropping to lower parts of the band and the rest of day to recover the losses to end almost flat.

Breadth was negative for the day. McClellan stayed flat in negative territory


This is a 60-min chart



It may be seen as a test of the gap that index opened on the way up on Nov 18, and also a test of the recent short term downtrend line. If so, index should either move sideways or advance and expand momentum and breadth.

Not much else to say.

OEW pivot support at 1187 and 1176. Pivot resistance at 1222 and 1240.

Long term trend is up. Mid-term trend is up. Short term trend is up.

Have a Nice Day!

Monday, November 22, 2010

S&P 500, NDX - November 22, 2010 - Intraday 2

Both S&P and NDX are wrestling with short term MAs.

S&P is sandwiched between 13 and 34 EMA.

NDX, which is stronger today, is fighting 13 and 21 EMA.


shorter term, you can see that 60-min chart is forming a sideways range

Our 1187 pivot was tested and produced a bounce.

So far, the action is positive, but indexes need to break out of the ongoing short term ranges and maintain that break to perhaps establish the next trending move.

Have a Nice Day!

S&P 500 - November 22, 2010 - Intraday

"You can only predict things after they have happened."

&

"There are many sides to reality. Choose the one that's best for you."

-- Rhinoceros by Eugene Ionesco

Last week had some Irish politicos staging some show that they were going to resist bailout and stuff like that.

So much so that some bearish blogger were calling a disintegration of Europe (again???)

Now we know that the whole show was a cheap comedy of absurd, and hence the quotes at the start of the post to honor a true master of the absurd -- Bailout it seems to be for the Irish!

If you remember I penned a few sentences wondering if Fed was doing POMO ahead of some monetary need or concern. Well, if IMF is gonna send 10's of Billions to Dublin, then all IMF members need to contribute and US is a contributor.

Some bullish pundits have been calling for extension to the rally based on the Irish news.

Seems like the market has a mind and behavior of its own and pays little attention to short term forecasts of pundits.

right now, S&P is below the gap of exhaustion gap of November 4 (some may view that gap as an exhaustion gap)




This is a very sluggish behavior from the index and casts suspicion on the impulsiveness of the move out of the low of November 16.

Bear in mind that the move out of November 16 low can be a either a wave B, or a wave A of a larger wave B.


I remind you of the McClellan chart of the weekend being in need of fortification. Today is not a very strong day so far.

To reiterate what I said in the weekend's post:

As long as S&P stays above 1191, we have a good case for Intermediate wave 4 being in the books, with this advance being Intermediate wave 5 up. A move above 1210 can further strengthen that case.

A loss of 1187 may indicate a potential change in trend and the possibility of more downside.

Have a Nice Day!

Sunday, November 21, 2010

S&P 500 - November 19, 2010

Flat Week!

Given the way the week started, ending flat may not be such a bad thing


This week held support of 200 MA, and the tick blue line. Index stayed within the support of the 1175-1225 band.

As long as index stays in this band, it is either consolidating or advancing. Below the band, we have 13 EMA, and then the 2007-2010 downtrend line as support

To the upside, 1200 is an immediate hurdle.

This is a daily


Our blue channel did its job again as its lower line supported the index and halted the correction – so far at least. It of course did not hurt that the lower line of the channel coincided with the 34 EMA and the lower edge of the 1175-1225 support band.

As I was playing around with charts, I thought it might possible to modify my ongoing blue channel a little and get a setup like this


I am going to keep this on mind and see if it can replace the ongoing channel as price unfolds.

For now, what is important is that index does not violate support and stay above the recent low.

Are we out of the woods?

Well, I mentioned that there was potential for the low of Intermediate wave 4 to be in. That has not changed. We have some sort of a low around of the 1170 that can act as trading support.

If the count that I am carrying is correct, I am looking for an end to intermediate 4, which may have happened. Whether it has happened or not, I need to ask myself what I might expect in terms of upside for an intermediate wave 5, and what sort of position might be suitable for that upside. Even if I am on the correct path, it is a crowded path. It’s not like back around 1040-1050 when we had Hindenburg captains awaiting an explosion (implosion?). We are just a few days past mass euphoria of the POMO-POMO dance. The objective of a wave 5 is to make a new high. After that, it’s all gravy, but one may need to be really careful not to doze on that gravy.

Daily volume shrank and came below average. Daily breadth was OK


McClellan Oscillator rose a bit


It is important for breadth to expand. A lagging breadth, especially in the beginning of a move out of a low can be a serious warning that all may not be well on the buy side of the market.

The recent decline caused a sell signal on BPSPX. The % of issues above 50 MA dropped rapidly and got oversold


We knew market was oversold, we could see market was at support, and we expected a bounce. If the bounce is the beginning of the next wave up, then I expect bulls to correct the shorter term breadth measure and prevent the longer term breadth gauges from lapsing.

This is a 60-min chart


As long as S&P stays above 1191, we have a good case for Intermediate wave 4 being in the books, with this advance being Intermediate wave 5 up. A move above 1210 can further strengthen that case.

A loss of 1187 may indicate a potential change in trend and the possibility of more downside.

Keep in mind that what I have here as a preferred count is only one of many different wave configurations (bullish or bearish) that are possible. So, don’t get fixated on it and pay attention what price is doing with respect to pivots and other price levels.

Again, we are not at the stage where most were bearish and following Hindenburg stuff. We just have corrected 50 points or so from a widely participated POMO-POMO dance of the bulls. If we have started a wave 5 up, there is no guarantee that it would get a lot higher, all it has to do to be successful is to match the previous high. If we have not started a wave 5, then we are either still correcting a wave 4, or are in early stages of a larger decline. It is up to you to assess whether the risk justifies the potential rewards of a new position.

Existing positions from lower levels can be managed using stops, or hedges or some other risk mitigation technique.

To wrap up, nothing out of the ordinary yet. We have had a relentless run up since August. We have had a correction that got intense before easing up. We have had index getting oversold, holding support and attempting a bounce.

And, we are not certain if we have seen the low of the correction or not.

And, we are not certain if it was just a correction or something a lot worse. That uncertainty is the most ordinary part of the picture to me ;-)

When uncertain, it may help to look at a bigger picture


Or even bigger – and clearer!


OEW pivot support at 1187 and 1176. Pivot resistance at 1222 and 1240.

Long term trend is up. Mid-term trend is up. Short term trend is up.

Enjoy the Rest of Your Weekend!