S&P 500 - January 31, 2011

Yesterday evening, when ES futures started trading, there was a rush down. All it did was getting a hit on Aug-Nov 2010 trend line

There is mayhem on the news wire. These are the moment that make salaries of headline writes. They may not necessarily make money for us speculating in the market.

I shall stay focused on what market does.

At Market Time Premium, I analyze the market and determine trends in multiple time frames, and attempt to examine possibilities and define risk. An individual can then decide if the risk is acceptable or not.

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S&P 500 - January 28, 2011

Is it the numbers of Amazon?


Is it the Mayhem is Tunisia and Egypt?


Is it Europe and Ireland?


Is it the last fad with long hair and growing a beard?


Is it the fill-in-the-blank that is happening?




I am sure there will be reasons found and used by many why yesterday was up and today is down, so far.

And if market bounces right now and recovers all the intraday losses, I am sure media will find a reason to explain that as well -- All in hindsight, of course


At market Time Premium, we concern ourselves with what price does and objectively define risk across multiple timeframes. We try to lay out scenarios that may bring change to the ongoing price patten in weekly, daily and intraday timeframes.


We study a host of technical indicators, we emphasize the importance of breadth, momentum and sentiment, but we place price above all other indicators.


We study from large frame to short frame, but, knowing that change happens at the margin, we define and maintain the criteria for a trend change starting from short frame to large frame.


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S&P 500, - January 22, 2011

While weekly momentum cycle seems to have turned for a few weeks, S&P price has so far refused to fall -- hitting at the doors of 1300 area



Recently, S&P 500 gave us its biggest point correction in weeks

Still, it has managed to hang on to immediate support


S&P daily seems to have been sandwiched in a narrow range between two curves



Can the resolution of this curve sandwich set the trend of the price for ensuing days?


No one knows how far a trend can go. But what I can do is define risk and come up with scenarios that may potentially signal an end to a trend in a time frame.

That is what I do at Market Time Premium across multiple time frames.


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USD Index, - January 20, 2011

USD’s chart is teaching a lesson in patience and endurance to people who trade USD index futures

There is a danger in blindly using USD Index for inter-market relationship involving assets denominated in US Dollars. USD index depends on how US Dollar moves against the basket that comprise it or the constituents with bigger weight. We see that USD chart above is doing nothing, some may even argue that it is a weak chart, yet gold is being creamed and markets are having a couple of weak days. Well, USD index is made against a weighted basket of currencies. According to Wikipedia, we have it as a weighted geometric mean of the dollar’s value compared only with

• Euro (EUR), 57.6% weight
• Pound sterling (GBP), 11.9% weight
• Canadian dollar (CAD), 9.1% weight
• Swedish krona (SEK), 4.2% weight and
• Swiss franc (CHF) 3.6% weight.
• Japanese Yen (JPY) 13.6% weight.

As you can see, changes of US Dollar versus Euro can affect USD index significantly and can at times overshadow US Dollar performance against, say, Canadian Dollar.

At times, USD may be a good representation of what hedge funds are doing with their risks and leverage, and, at times, it may become somewhat misleading.

US Dollar has been strengthening somewhat against Canadian Dollar

And that is in line with poor performance of gold and gold miners.

Euro has been bouncing against US Dollar

And we see USD Index in a range

So, it’s important to make that distinction between the currency (US Dollar) and the weighted index (USD). As far as risk assets are concerned, the two major resource currencies Canadian Dollar and Australian Dollar have been soft lately against US Dollar the currency.

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S&P 500 - January 14, 2011

This has been a very delightful uptrend so far.



Nice chart. Weekly support is around 1220. But will you be willing to sit through a 60-point drop just to know if weekly support holds?

While divergences have been there with momentum and breadth (noted by us and others), while we have been reminded by many for weeks of highly bullish sentiments, we at Market Time Premium have been following the trend level by level.

Long-time readers of Market Time know that I prefer price over all indicators. They also know that I pay little attention to overbought levels when there is an uptrend going on.


No one knows how far a trend can go. But what I can do, is to define risk and come up with scenarios that may potentially signal an end to a trend.

That is what I do at Market Time Premium across multiple time frames.


For detailed multi-frame analysis, and annotated charts, subscribe to premium posts at


http://markettime.wordpress.com/

Precious Metals - January 13, 2011

In a post of December 31, 2011, with Precious Metals grabbing much too much attention after a good run, I wrote:

""""""""""

• I think gold and silver are in the process of topping a Minute wave 5 of Minor wave 3

• I think gold and silver will soon correct in a Minor wave 4 that would cause an OEW mid-term trend change

• I may be wrong :-D

""""""""""

It turns out that I was not wrong. Gold made a nominal high the day after my post and rolled down.

Sometimes, we get them right, eh ;-)

This is the weekly chart I posted here at the free blog before the imminent top of gold




Well, as I had discussed with subscribers of Market Time Premium, other than wave count, gold's weekly momentum cycle had turned, and gold appeared to be topping against S&P 500.





Now, within the context of the count I have been carrying, I am now looking for an opportunity to perhaps increase exposure in Precious Metal area.

---------------------------------

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Mom. Cycles, Resource Currencies, Jan 5, 2011

Resource currencies had a rough day against US Dollar yesterday

This is Aussie Dollar

This is Canadian Dollar

These are weekly momentum cycles of some key indexes

S&P 500

NDX

S&P 600 small cap

Russel 2000

Canadian TSX

Daily price may ignore the weekly momentum cycle for some time, or forever. If daily price activity is strong, it may force a turn in weekly momentum. If not, it will eventually obey the more dominant time frame.

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S&P 500, January 3, 2011 – Intraday

At market Time Premium, I spotted a range on a 60-min chart in Nov 2010, and defined two targets for it: 1250 and 1275

You can see the range and the targets (2150, 2175) on this chart



Both targets have now been achieved

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S&P 500, January 3, 2011

S&P gapped strongly up at the open.

The last couple of weeks of 2010 had no shortage of pundits pointing out divergences, highly positive sentiments, low volume activity , etc.

This is how S&P weekly stands



As I have mentioned many, many times, price is the most important indicator of all. It can ignore divergences. It can make a mockery of top/bottom calls based on sentiment, and it can attract volume after it has a good run,

At Market Time, I follow price. I study the macro, I do very detailed analysis of all technical aspects, and note down anomalies -- BUT, I follow price.

That has kept us in the uptrend despite all the calls of top based on sentiment and divergences.

I also define an exit strategy and revise and adjust as time goes and price unfolds.

For detailed analysis, and annotated charts, subscribe to premium posts at

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