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At Market Time Premium, I have opened the December 2010 posts to public in case you want to see how we analyzed and navigated the December market


Just use the calendar on the right hand side to go to December, or use this link


http://www.markettimepremium.com/2010/12/

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Silver Miner ETF, SIL - Feb 25, 2011

Silver miners ETF, SIL has been doing very well


Daily price has performed well withing the context of my adaptive channel




My adaptive channel is programmed to statistically re-adjust its channel offset so that peaks and valleys of the channel provide a better fit to price movement than fixed-offset channels like Bollinger Band, Keltner, etc


I would like it to use mid-channel and the nearby curves as support for any possible price set backs


In a Feb 20 post of Precious Metals, I introduced two of my proprietary breadth indicators


1. % of stocks in an OEW uptrend
2. Market Alignment Index (MAI)


You can look up my explanation of the two proprietary indicators in the post

Here are the two for SIL



SIL has been doing well internally. I would like MAI to not lapse too deeply below zero. I would also like it to expand and get into overbought areas for a show of strength of price posture of its constituents


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S&P 500 - Feb 24, 2010

This was posted yesterday intraday in the premium section as I expected a bounce to start

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I guess we can all see the benefits of ignoring opinions, following price, and being objective with risk level assessment.

From the looks of it so far, we seem to have picked the warnings early enough. 1320 was a good level to lighten up exposure. After that, I said I did not want any unprotected long position and it seems like that was an OK thing to do as well.

While top after top was being called from many corners, I just stayed the course because market wouldn’t force me into a defensive posture — thanks to having multiple levels of exit/concern. And when things started to go sour, our technicals were there to guide us and warn us

Market is still denying The Trapped a bounce.

S&P has been down to 1294, which I have laid down as a first line of support on a weekly. It has stretched the lower boundary of the purple channel for the first time since the start of the channel in December.

If market bounces without destroying 1290 area, it may be seen by some as a test of support, give the 3-day drop and no bounce, there may be enough shorts in the system to squeeze into a nice rally.

It’s all if-this-if-that, I know, but, index is oversold near support, and if it bounces, it may feed on a few shorts for fun.

Now, the bounce will tell us what might expect for later

On a 60-min frame, we have a diverging RSI and massively down MACD. We have TRIN spiking 2+

I think a bounce is near.

If I am right, things will become very interesting because market has held the support of 1290-1300

For a bull, the 1294 or so would have been a good place to roll the dice for a gamble.

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At Market Time Premium, I study and define my risk levels across multiple time frames.

I approach the market from larger time frames to smaller time frames. But, knowing that change happens at the margin of smaller frames, I define and monitor my risk levels from smaller time frames onto larger time frames.

For detailed multi-frame analysis, and annotated charts, subscribe to premium content at

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Precious Metals - February 20, 2011

As explained in the post of Feb 5, 2011, I have so far been correct about the turns of the PM market

We saw the top coming

We had a correct drop zone target area for the correction

We correctly speculated the low and the bounce

So far, amazingly, PM sector's behavior has been routinely predictable.

It will not always be like that, and, at some point curve balls will be thrown left, right, and center.


One important thing is to determine is the ongoing trends and risk levels across multiple levels. As I explained to my subscribers at Market Time Premium, now that I have gotten into position nicely at the most recent low, my job becomes one of position management. A correct entry means nothing without a proper exit. We are not doing what we are doing to pick turns and curves, we do this to make money and a good entry is just a beginning.

This is my current trend table for some popular PM ETFs



There has been a lot of improvement in the sector as far as short and mid-term trends and stages are concerned. The sector is not completely out of woods but it has take good steps in the right direction.



At Market Time Premium, I employ a variety of techniques to study, analyze, and characterize price behavior of the market.


I am an avid student of market breadth and am constantly thinking about algorithms and indicators that may allow me to have a proper characterization of market internals.

Within my tool set, I have the following

Objective Elliott Wave (OEW) Trend Indicator


Objective Elliot Wave (OEW) is an enhancement to traditional Elliott Wave. OEW was invented by Tony Caldaro of http://caldaro.wordpress.com. In addition to observing all rules and guidelines of traditional Elliott Wave, OEW has rules that help objectively determine the end point of significant waves. That is a powerful thing to have as it removes the subjectivity of wave end determination that has always been a weak point of traditional Elliott Wave

Based on that, I have developed a breadth indicator that determines percentage of stocks in mid and long term uptrends in a market


Market Alignment Index (MAI)

Long time readers of this blog know that I am keen on the study of a market posture. I like to know the market alignment and understand if it is negative, neutral or positive



Using a complex study of price and a host of indicators, I have developed an algorithm that would produce a bounded oscillator ({-100}-0-{100}) to conveniently display the market's alignment

This is breadth chart of gold miner ETF, GDX with the above indicators




The first indicator panel contains the OEW Breadth Indicator. You can see how nicely it got oversold into a state where almost all ETF constituents were in confirmed OEW downtrends. That was a condition that prompted me to be on guard for a possible bottoming process and at least a bounce.

In the bottom two panels of the chart above, I have Market Alignment Index (MAI) for weekly and daily prices. You can see that while the daily MAI got seriously oversold while weekly MAI stayed positive through the process. This means that the weekly posture of GDX maintained its positive alignment while the daily time frame was correcting.

Daily MAI is now neutral. Meanwhile, weekly MAI has improved. This has been a good bounce. There has been a lot of improvement with price and market internals in the PM sector. But it can be better, it must be better.


So, while I am encouraged by my good entry near the lows and the behavior of the PM sector, I am not complacent.

At Market Time Premium, I study and define my risk levels across multiple time frames.

I approach the market from larger time frames to smaller time frames. But, knowing that change happens at the margin of smaller frames, I define and monitor my risk levels from smaller time frames onto larger time frames.

For detailed multi-frame analysis, and annotated charts, subscribe to premium content at

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US Long Rates - Feb 12, 2011

Long-term US rates have been rising for weeks



Rates are now at long-term resistance



There is a clear higher low on the chart above. Question is if rates continue to rise or somehow get suppressed back, or will rates move higher through resistance and threaten to rverse a couple of decades of a downtrend.


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S&P 500, - February 6, 2011

On January 22, I posted this chart in this blog space




In that post, I said:

“S&P daily seems to have been sandwiched in a narrow range between two curves”

And asked:

“Can the resolution of this curve sandwich set the trend of the price for ensuing days?”

That was before the headlines screaming mayhem in the Middle East and before Egypt-Friday of January 28, 2011.


Let’s come forward and what has happened to those curves and the price they contained





Solid behavior by the curves!


Even the Egypy-Friday could not overcome the support of the bottom curve.


The goal is to study and characterize price behavior.


At Market Time Premium, I study price behavior in multiple time frames. I then examine possibilities and define risk.

For detailed multi-frame analysis, and annotated charts, subscribe to premium posts at


http://markettime.wordpress.com/

Precious Metals - February 5, 2011

On December 31, 2010, I made a quick post in this blog space and said that I was looking for a top in gold. Gold topped the next day.

In a post of January 13, 2011, I made a quick post and said I was looking for an opportunity to perhaps increase exposure in the Precious Metal area.

At Market Time Premium, I discussed the importance of the 128-130 area as support




I also pointed out the oversold nature the breadth of the gold mining ETFs







Those technical conditions have given us a good bounce


So far, we have been on track: we saw the top coming, we saw the important area of support, we took advantage of the oversold conditions near support for at least a bounce


From here on, it becomes a matter of assessing the risk and managing the position


At Market Time Premium, I analyze and determine trends in multiple time frames, examine possibilities and define risk.

For detailed multi-frame analysis, and annotated charts, subscribe to premium posts at


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S&P, Transport, Non-Confirmation - Feb, 2, 2011

Some of you may have either noticed or read that Transport sector is not confirming the market highs.

It is true. We have a DOW theory non-confirmation in place.

I have read in some places that because of the non-confirmation, we have a top. Well, that is not true according to the DOW theory. Plain and simple, one must always assume that the previously established primary uptrend is intact until it is reversed with a move below the previous secondary low point. Until then, the primary uptrend remains intact.

Non-confirmations between the DOW and the Transports gives a warning (not the certainty) of a possible trend change. Non-confirmation can be corrected like we saw in summer of 2009.

As a side question, are Trannies falling victim to the recent rise in the price of energy?

As for the DOW theory itself, the reversals, when they are confirmed, can be somewhat late in the game. I’d rather work with short trends, OEW reversals, and stage analysis as they can get me in and out sooner.

So, treat the Tranny non-confirmation as a serious warning but focus on the price of the index itself to assess, and define your risk and posture

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S&P 500 - February 1, 2011

So, what happened to market crash and Egypt and Suez canal closing?

What happened to all the points (25 actually) lost off S&P on Friday as headline after headline said the market was falling because (???? fill-in-the-blank-here ???)


As I showed yesterday with an S&P future chart, all that happened on the back of that hoopla was a test of a trend line near a major support area.


I stay focused on market does. I suggest you do that as well.


At Market Time Premium, I analyze the market and determine trends in multiple time frames, and attempt to examine possibilities and define risk.

For detailed multi-frame analysis, and annotated charts, subscribe to premium posts at


http://markettime.wordpress.com/