S&P 500 - March 29, 2011

On March 3, I showed a daily chart of S&P 500 with support/resistance curves.



In the previous post of March 25, I mentioned 1280 as an important area


Let's look at current support/resistance in the context of the daily frame




1280 is an important level of support for the bulls at this point.

From a past price/resistance point of view, like traditional pivots or Point & Figure Prices, levels are static. From an average price point of point of view, levels are dynamic, as average curve up and down


Which is better? There really is no clear winner or loser. It all depends on the context. These are all tools and every tool has its uses and potential abuses.

Sometimes static and dynamic studies complement each other, they point to 1280 area at this point


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S&P 500, march 25, 2011

S&P had a good week with a close back above the 1300 area




There has been quite a bit of improvement in the short term momentum and breadth gauges that we follow at Market Time Premium


This is a daily chart of S&P



At this time, it seems important for the index to stay above 1280 area

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GLD - March 20, 2011

This is a weekly P&F chart of GLD



The trend is up. As long as GLD maintains the trend lines, it's doing just fine.

On a broader price range, it will take a move below 128-130 to damage the weekly P&F chart

The 130 area can easily be seen from a weekly price chart as well




Gold has held well. There, however, has been a rather deep pullback with mining ETFs. They should firm up and avoid further decline

This is my tend and stage table for PM ETFs





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I use a host of quantitative breadth and price stage algorithms. We were prepared for the top, we are now getting into gears to see if we can detect early signs of a bottom

S&P 500 - March 16, 2011

Some of the long-time readers may remember that I have on many occasions identifies range-bound action and defined two range target. You might also remember that those range targets have had a great track records of being achieved, especially in the direction of the mid-term trend.


Early this month, I considered the possibility of a range-bound action by S&P and laid down my target for both upside at Market Time Premium, and downside breakouts

The range broke down.


Both downside targets that I defined early March are now achieved :-)




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I use a host of quantitative breadth and price stage algorithms. We were prepared for the top, we are now getting into gears to see if we can detect early signs of a bottom

S&P 500 - March 11, 2011

I mentioned that we had a confirmed OEW downtrend in place.

I have also showed the topping weekly momentum cycle of S&P



So far, all bears have done has been hitting support



If bears are serious, they must break support -- it's just that simple


At Market Time Premium, we were prepared for the top, but that should be of no surprise to long-time market time readers :-)

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I use a host of quantitative algorithms, including my own Stage Analysis Algorithm, Market Alignment Index and OEW indicator (which I wrote in a post of February 20, 2011) to assess the internals of the market. We were prepared for the top, we are now getting into gears to see if we can detect early signs of a bottom

S&P 500 - March 10, 2011

Objective Elliot Wave (OEW) has confirmed a wave reversal.

As a result, the up wave that started summer of 2010 has now ended

I have labeled the chart accordingly with one bullish and one bearish alternate.


This came as no surprise to us.

At Market Time Premium, we had prepared for a trend reversal through extensive price, breadth and market stage analysis.


Now, we have a market in correction.

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At Market Time Premium, I use a host of quantitative algorithms, including my own Stage Analysis Algorithm, Market Alignment Index and OEW indicator (which I wrote in a post of February 20, 2011) to assess the internals of the market


For daily, detailed, multi-time frame analysis, and annotated charts, subscribe to premium content at

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S&P 500 - March 5, 2011

whenever I listen to he bears, the world should have ended already and the market should have been in the dumpster.


But markets don't fall on talks


In a post of March 1, I pointed out some subtle deterioration in market internals, but said:


"But for now, for the immediate now, we have had a test of support. Bears should really do better than that if they want to be taken seriously. They should, for a start, break support."




So, what have the bears done since then? Nothing, really, nothing

This is a weekly chart of S&P 500




Sure, market has had some scary drops, but it also has had some nice squeeze rallies.

Bottom line is as it was on March 1:

Bears, if they want to be taken seriously, should, for a start, break support -- it's just that simple


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S&P 500, March 3, 2011

On Feb 6, I posted this chart in this blog space




In that post I mentioned: "Solid behavior by the curves!"


This is a continuation to the chart



The goal is to study and characterize price behavior. That way, we may have an objective approach to the market regardless of what the news pumps in the air


At Market Time Premium, I study price behavior in multiple time frames. I then examine possibilities and define risk.

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Momentum Cycles - March 2, 2011

After 3+ years of blogging, I am still amazed how blog traffic increases when market loses or gains significant points. It's like suddenly everybody wants to know what is happening.

Market operates everyday. Market analysis is an ongoing effort, very often we see or suspect signs of a pending move ahead of the move. Many seem to become interested only after a significant move happens. That may be OK if they stay interested after the move, but that does not seem to be the case. Their interest vanishes when market enters a lull.

Quiet, less volatile periods are times we can analyze and prepare for potential moves.

Anyhow,

These are some weekly momentum cycle charts


S&P 500


S&P 600


NDX


10-yr rate



Dollar ETF


Gold ETF


Silver ETF


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S&P 500 - March 1, 2011

So far, all that seller could accomplish was a test of support around 1300





That is so remarkably little (SO FAR) given all the news of Gaddafi and oil shock and what not.


To be fair to bears, they did a few more points of a drop on Gaddafi that they did on Mubarak.

Taking a look at the internals of S&P 500 and examining the trend (as quantified by OEW) and posture (as quantified bu Market Alignment Index) of its constituents, we see a subtle deterioration that has been in the works since Mid-February.



This may be an indication of a topping process. Further deterioration will of course strengthen this notion.

But for now, for the immediate now, we have had a test of support. Bears should really do better than that if they want to be taken seriously. They should, for a start, break support.


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At Market Time Premium, I study and define my risk levels across multiple time frames.

For detailed multi-frame analysis, and annotated charts, subscribe to premium content at

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