This is a 60-min S&P futures
This thing has not been behaving impulsively. The volatility has remained and it is quite probable that what we have had from recent lows is an ABC up as I discussed with 15-min chart last night’s Market Time Premium post
Last nigh we had futures green and now we have red and the swings are quite large. 20-3-40 points every few hours is not stuff of bull market. The may lead to a bull as that type of activity may be a part of a bottoming process. Or they may be part of an ongoing correction in bearish phase. What I know is that index has a lot of technicals broken and if I wanted to err on the side of caution, I either would not go against prevailing trend or would do so small and guarded.
Sometimes, the situation is so depressed that a bounce is very, very likely, and that’s why I posted the supporting curve range when futures were hitting 1080-ish.
That trade was low risk with stop below 1070 and has paid and whatever is left is now securely hedged.
Now, with the depressed conditions having had a bounce (from 1085-ish to 1170-ish), and with index behaving not very impulsively, one is left with the possibility of a new long being open to a sudden bout of selling or a whipsaw in wide ranging Yo-Yo’s. That is how it is and any new long knife-catching gamble should be aware of that
So far, since the recent 11170-ish peak, futures have had a lower high and lower low situation. At the very minimum a move above 1150 (1153 cash) is needed for any new long trade, setting whatever low that came before it as stop. That is 40-points at this moment, and that is the risk of betting anew on a long for any trade.
I am not trying to scare anybody, and, even if it is a counter bounce from recent low, this may turn and do series of ABC’s on the way up all the way to 1200+. I am just laying out the risks that one may have to face going against a market with broken technicals, broken structure (as discussed using MAI and OEW indicators), and wide swing volatility.
On the opposite side we have the smooth rise of gold
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