S&p 500 - Sept 8, 2012 - 2

We had seen and pointed out S&P in a short-term contraction in the timing band of a trading cycle low and said:

"Index is in a theoretical timing band for a trading (short-term) cycle low. The resolution of the recent contraction may tell me if the low is put in already or needs another push down to be set"


Market resolved the contraction upward with force and gave us the answer -- sometimes trading can be easy if one waits and then react :-)

The way I see the cyclical phasing at this point:

The next trading (short-term) cycle low is due in the Oct 9-Oct 30 time frame

The next swinging (intermediate) cycle low is due in the Oct 22-Dec 3 time frame


It seems like October is shaping up to be an interesting month.


All of this is theoretical and statistical, of course, but if theory and statistics hold right, September may have market put in a top and then roll on to its trading and swinging cycle lows  in October



Only the delusional knows the future for sure.


All we know is the past, statistics we use to make probabilistic models for the future


G. P. Box said:


"all models are wrong, but some are useful"


Investing in the financial markets can involve considerable risk. Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future performance. All information included in Market Time Premium reflects ongoing thoughts of Market Time authors about market-related issues, and is prepared for educational purposes, and is presented as authors’ observations, and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security or use any particular system. Information is based on historical research using data believed to be reliable, but there is no guarantee as to its accuracy. Market Time Premium, its author(s), and its affiliates do not represent themselves as acting in the position of an investment adviser or investment manager. Market Time Premium, its author(s), and its affiliates shall not provide you with personally tailored advice concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio or securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. From time to time, Market Time Premium, its author(s), and its affiliates may hold positions in securities mentioned, but are under no obligation to either divulge or hold such positions.