We had seen and pointed out S&P in a short-term contraction in the timing band of a trading cycle low and said:
"Index is in a theoretical timing band for a trading (short-term) cycle
low. The resolution of the recent contraction may tell me if the low is
put in already or needs another push down to be set"
Market resolved the contraction upward with force and gave us the answer -- sometimes trading can be easy if one waits and then react :-)
The way I see the cyclical phasing at this point:
The next trading (short-term) cycle low is due in the Oct 9-Oct 30 time frame
The next swinging (intermediate) cycle low is due in the Oct 22-Dec 3 time frame
It seems like October is shaping up to be an interesting month.
All of this is theoretical and statistical, of course, but if theory and statistics hold right, September may have market put in a top and then roll on to its trading and swinging cycle lows in October
Only the delusional knows the future for sure.
All we know is the past, statistics we use to make probabilistic models for the future
G. P. Box said:
"all models are wrong, but some are useful"
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S&P 500 – May 15, 2012 - Bottom Line: Long term trend is up. Mid-term trend is down. Short-term trend is down Weekly S&P stage is Late Advance (2-C) Daily S&P stage is Strong Decli...
1 year ago