Tuesday, August 28, 2012

Bank Credit and Business Loan

Internet is a wonderful place. It is full of all sorts of stuff.


It is, of course, up to the user (surfer) to sift through the stuff and pick what is of value.

One of the interesting phenomenon recent years has been the ability of individuals to express their minds freely, expansively and somewhat anonymously


This has led to all sorts of overnight experts in all sorts of fields


The world of finance has not been immune to this and all sorts of stuff is written and commented in the cyberspace


It is still up to the reader to sift through the stuff


I came across some comment by some pseudo-named cyber-entity saying that private credit has been contracting


The cyber-entity did not give any reference to the source of his/her data and did not bother to tell us over what time frame he/she had been studying private credit


Without reference to data and without being explicit about the time frame of study, any such claim can hardly be of any use for making market decisions


So, I thought I would look up credit figures for myself using the data published by the good guys of US Federal Reserve






You can clearly see that, since late 2009, both bank credit and business loan have been in an uptrend.




In all fairness, the person who made the claim about contracting credit may have been looking at data for the past few months and not past few years, he/she might have been looking at credit data of some other country, like Greece, but, since he did not give anything to substantiate his claim, I end with the point that without reference to the actual data and without being explicit about the time frame of the study, any claim made is, at best useless, and, at worst misleading.




Investing in the financial markets can involve considerable risk. Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future performance. All information included in Market Time Premium reflects ongoing thoughts of Market Time authors about market-related issues, and is prepared for educational purposes, and is presented as authors’ observations, and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security or use any particular system. Information is based on historical research using data believed to be reliable, but there is no guarantee as to its accuracy. Market Time Premium, its author(s), and its affiliates do not represent themselves as acting in the position of an investment adviser or investment manager. Market Time Premium, its author(s), and its affiliates shall not provide you with personally tailored advice concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio or securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. From time to time, Market Time Premium, its author(s), and its affiliates may hold positions in securities mentioned, but are under no obligation to either divulge or hold such positions.


Sunday, August 26, 2012

S&P 500 - Aug 27, 2012

I have been of the view that early June gave an intermediate cycle low and a potential yearly cycle low.

So far, nothing has happened to change that view and the June low has been looking more and more like a yearly low








Index has risen to test the prior high



This is a weekly chart with some line studies









I can zoom in and do some curve studies to identify some levels of support







1395 and 1380 are nearby levels of support


Investing in the financial markets can involve considerable risk. Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future performance. All information included in Market Time Premium reflects ongoing thoughts of Market Time authors about market-related issues, and is prepared for educational purposes, and is presented as authors’ observations, and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security or use any particular system. Information is based on historical research using data believed to be reliable, but there is no guarantee as to its accuracy. Market Time Premium, its author(s), and its affiliates do not represent themselves as acting in the position of an investment adviser or investment manager. Market Time Premium, its author(s), and its affiliates shall not provide you with personally tailored advice concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio or securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. From time to time, Market Time Premium, its author(s), and its affiliates may hold positions in securities mentioned, but are under no obligation to either divulge or hold such positions.


Saturday, August 4, 2012

S&P 500 - Aug 3, 2012

Nice price move

This must have squeezed the dear life out of so many shorts especially those who shorted after ECB head did his blah-blah on Thursday


I have been of the view that early June gave an intermediate cycle low and a potential yearly cycle low.





So far market has moved in a series of higher highs and higher lows -- the very definition of an uptrend


Yet, the internals, as measured by McClellan and the market structure, as measured by MAI look weak and uninspiring













These negative divergences are not encouraging


Most, if not all good moves start on the back of some hapless shorts getting squeezed dry. But after the shorts are killed, market must expand and advance with good internals


Friday was a good day probably enforced with weekly index options being expired.


Market needs more to, at least, turn Summation positive





1330-1360 is a pivotal support area


The trend is up but it's been weak and is need of expansion of breadth

———————————————————
Investing in the financial markets can involve considerable risk. Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future performance. All information included in Market Time Premium reflects ongoing thoughts of Market Time authors about market-related issues, and is prepared for educational purposes, and is presented as authors’ observations, and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security or use any particular system. Information is based on historical research using data believed to be reliable, but there is no guarantee as to its accuracy. Market Time Premium, its author(s), and its affiliates do not represent themselves as acting in the position of an investment adviser or investment manager. Market Time Premium, its author(s), and its affiliates shall not provide you with personally tailored advice concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio or securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. From time to time, Market Time Premium, its author(s), and its affiliates may hold positions in securities mentioned, but are under no obligation to either divulge or hold such positions.






Thursday, August 2, 2012

S&P 500 - Aug 2, 2012

Last post, I mentioned weak internals of S&P and said that Fed was not indicating any new printing program. That would leave things to European and, as we have seen during the past two years, Europeans do endless rounds of meeting and talking and more meeting and talking and on and on and on -- too long on promises and too short on substance

Today's blah-blah by ECB-head was nothing new and delivered nothing new


S&P took a beating


It was held by support around 1350-1360





Internals are weak as measured by McClellan and Summation






Market needs a good push to, at least, turn Summation positive

1330-1360 is a pivotal support area


———————————————————
Investing in the financial markets can involve considerable risk. Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future performance. All information included in Market Time Premium reflects ongoing thoughts of Market Time authors about market-related issues, and is prepared for educational purposes, and is presented as authors’ observations, and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security or use any particular system. Information is based on historical research using data believed to be reliable, but there is no guarantee as to its accuracy. Market Time Premium, its author(s), and its affiliates do not represent themselves as acting in the position of an investment adviser or investment manager. Market Time Premium, its author(s), and its affiliates shall not provide you with personally tailored advice concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio or securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. From time to time, Market Time Premium, its author(s), and its affiliates may hold positions in securities mentioned, but are under no obligation to either divulge or hold such positions.